Election forecasts

Posted by admin on Nov 24, 2005 in Volume 14 Issue 1 | 0 comments

With the Gomery Report being released just a few weeks ago, the Opposition parties are seizing it as an opportunity to pull the plug on our current government. Conservatives feel the government has lost its moral authority to govern, while the Liberal Government feels Canadians should see the second Gomery Report before being forced into an election. There are three scenarios that could result in an election…
The first and most immediate scenario is that an opposition party introduces a non-confidence motion. The opposition parties are entitled to “Opposition Days” which occur about once a week and allow the opposition to set the agenda in the House of Commons. An Opposition Day would be used to introduce a non-confidence motion which, if it is passed, means that the government has lost the confidence of the House. The result of the passing of a non-confidence motion is to dissolve the House and have an election.

There are two key dates that the opposition parties have to introduce a “non-confidence motion.” November 22 is an Opposition Day and the Conservative party could put forward a non-confidence motion then. Defeat of the government on Nov. 22 would bring a January 2 election day. The second possible day for a “non-confidence motion” is Nov. 24, which the Liberal government could defer the vote until Nov. 29. A defeat on the 29 would bring an election day on Jan. 9.

There is also another option for opposition parties to bring down the government. On December 8 there is a vote to take place regarding Supplementary Estimates. Money bills (Main Estimates and Supplementary Estimates) and budget bills are viewed as matters of confidence. If a government loses a vote on a monetary issue the government is seen as having lost the confidence of the House. The result of the opposition defeating the Dec. 8 Supplementary Estimates would be an election date of January 16.

The third scenario is that the Rt. Hon. Paul Martin keeps his promise with Canadians and calls an election within 30 days after February 1, which is when the second Gomery Report will be released. An election day under this scenario would likely occur at the end of March or in early April.
If Opposition leaders have their way, Canadians will be at the polls in early January, because it will be on their timeline and not that of the Liberal Government’s. But it’s a two edged sword, because the issue of having an election campaign over the holidays it that no political leader wants to look like the Grinch who stole Christmas and sent voters to the polls.